Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA +175 UAB -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +17 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -5.8 (+22.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+29.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -1.3 (+18.3) | 144.7 (+30.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -2.2 (+19.2) | 142.1 (+32.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -1.1 (+18.1) | 145.6 (+29.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -2.1 (+19.1) | 144.2 (+30.8) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | UAB 83 – 73 UTSA |
| Jan 22, 2025 | UAB 81 – 78 UTSA |
| Jan 3, 2024 | UAB 78 – 76 UTSA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | UAB 83 – 78 UTSA |
| Dec 31, 2022 | UAB 90 – 67 UTSA |
Game Analysis
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