Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU +100 UNCG +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +11 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -1.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (+31.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -1.7 (-12.7) | 132.2 (+26.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -0.8 (-11.8) | 132.2 (+26.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -1.1 (-12.1) | 134.6 (+24.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -1.5 (-12.5) | 133.1 (+25.9) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 75 UNCG |
| Jan 10, 2026 | ETSU 86 – 60 UNCG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 49 UNCG |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 65 ETSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 73 – 62 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-12 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-4 | 7-3 |
| Away | 3-5 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#110) | 4.8 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#148) | 0.88 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#121) | 1.17 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#114) | 0.552 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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