Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | LAM +450 SFA -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAM +5 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -10.7 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -8.7 (+13.7) | 146.8 (+24.2) | 18% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -8.3 (+13.3) | 142.6 (+28.4) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -7.5 (+12.5) | 147.0 (+24.0) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -8.7 (+13.7) | 148.7 (+22.3) | 17% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SFA 84 – 74 LAM |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SFA 88 – 81 LAM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LAM 67 – 62 SFA |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SFA 72 – 63 LAM |
| Feb 19, 2022 | SFA 70 – 56 LAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAM | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-18 | 16-5 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 12-3 |
| Home | 5-5 | 10-1 |
| Away | 3-11 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#326) | 1.3 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.56 (#330) | 0.31 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.32 (#332) | -0.03 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#329) | 0.529 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAM | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 52.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 24.2% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 33.1% |
Game Analysis
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