Betting Lines
| Spread | EMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | EMU -163 NIU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +34 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | EMU -4.0 (+30.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EMU -3.9 (+30.1) | 139.5 (+8.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EMU -2.7 (+31.3) | 137.1 (+10.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EMU -4.6 (+29.4) | 140.1 (+7.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EMU -3.2 (+30.8) | 140.6 (+7.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | EMU 77 – 59 NIU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | EMU 79 – 76 NIU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | EMU 75 – 71 NIU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NIU 76 – 66 EMU |
| Mar 3, 2023 | NIU 85 – 66 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-12 | 3-16 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 2-12 |
| Home | 5-4 | 2-7 |
| Away | 1-8 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#327) | -13.4 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.47 (#328) | -2.56 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.90 (#322) | -3.63 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#307) | 0.396 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.2% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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