Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | PSU -110 PUR +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +21 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -0.0 (-21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -1.3 (-22.3) | 141.1 (-16.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -0.7 (-21.7) | 135.7 (-10.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -0.5 (-21.5) | 141.3 (-16.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -0.7 (-21.7) | 140.6 (-15.6) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | PUR 93 – 85 PSU |
| Dec 5, 2024 | PSU 81 – 70 PUR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | PUR 95 – 78 PSU |
| Mar 12, 2023 | PUR 67 – 65 PSU |
| Feb 1, 2023 | PUR 80 – 60 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 18-10 |
| Conference | 7-12 | 13-6 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#37) | 13.4 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#63) | 2.55 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#39) | 3.49 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#99) | 0.588 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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