Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -1000 CMU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +6 | 188 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -11.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+36.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -10.2 (-4.2) | 149.9 (+38.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -9.0 (-3.0) | 153.5 (+34.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -10.5 (-4.5) | 152.9 (+35.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -10.2 (-4.2) | 150.0 (+38.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BALL 85 – 69 CMU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | BALL 68 – 67 CMU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | CMU 69 – 67 BALL |
| Jan 22, 2025 | BALL 82 – 80 CMU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | BALL 79 – 71 CMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-13 | 7-16 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 3-13 |
| Home | 7-4 | 5-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#169) | -9.6 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#199) | -2.00 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#179) | -2.22 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#169) | 0.401 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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