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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–16 on winners spread MAE 8.1 49 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga	+21.2	154.8	91%	75–89	✓
Iowa @ Michigan	+5.0	157.1	70%	57–79	✓
Nebraska @ Illinois	+15.9	148.7	90%	70–86	✓
Western Kentucky @ Houston	+15.5	140.4	86%	57–81	✓
Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy	+11.8	151.0	87%	73–83	✓
Florida A&M @ South Carolina State	-9.9	133.4	16%	75–67	✓
Washington @ Arizona State	+9.8	151.1	84%	72–80	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Saint Francis	-0.1	128.7	47%	72–65	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Sacred Heart	+3.0	156.3	66%	82–69	✗
Long Island University @ Bryant	+7.3	154.0	78%	80–87	✓
Wagner @ Central Connecticut	-7.3	137.4	21%	83–63	✓
Tennessee State @ Morehead State	+11.2	134.6	87%	60–74	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Prairie View A&M	+22.1	143.4	91%	62–82	✓
UIC @ Youngstown State	+5.1	141.2	73%	58–74	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay	+4.2	145.8	69%	89–84	✗
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee	+3.5	150.5	64%	72–84	✓
UCLA @ Utah	-0.6	137.5	47%	76–61	✓
Belmont @ Eastern Kentucky	-3.8	159.5	29%	67–81	✗
Weber State @ Sacramento State	-8.9	149.2	20%	82–73	✓
Murray State @ Jacksonville State	+1.3	137.7	54%	74–87	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois	+1.7	144.2	59%	94–88	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Southern	+14.6	141.7	88%	65–79	✓
Portland State @ Northern Colorado	-0.3	132.8	50%	64–66	✗
Ohio State @ Michigan State	-4.8	147.1	31%	67–71	✗
USC @ Colorado	+2.8	136.9	62%	62–80	✓
Boise State @ San Diego State	+6.2	139.5	72%	66–78	✓
San Francisco @ BYU	+12.4	145.3	88%	73–79	✓
Oregon @ Stanford	+1.5	138.6	57%	71–68	✗
Northwestern @ Minnesota	+6.0	144.7	75%	67–59	✗
Austin Peay @ Tennessee Tech	-6.5	146.6	25%	76–81	✗
Loyola Marymount @ Pepperdine	+2.1	145.2	62%	81–74	✗
Montana @ Idaho State	-2.9	131.9	43%	64–58	✓
Oregon State @ California	+0.4	132.1	51%	59–57	✗
Pacific @ Saint Mary's	+5.1	130.2	72%	46–58	✓
Washington State @ Arizona	+8.0	143.5	78%	53–69	✓
North Florida @ Stetson	+4.3	147.1	68%	79–74	✗
Rider @ Saint Peter's	+9.8	134.5	85%	52–66	✓
Tulane @ Cincinnati	+4.3	131.0	69%	71–91	✓
Wagner @ Central Connecticut	-7.1	137.7	21%	77–83	✗
Long Island University @ Bryant	+7.5	154.4	79%	60–63	✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Merrimack	+1.8	142.5	62%	67–75	✓
Drexel @ James Madison	+3.6	142.9	71%	84–78	✗
Manhattan @ Siena	+9.6	130.9	84%	69–74	✓
UL Monroe @ Texas State	+9.4	129.0	81%	49–58	✓
UC Davis @ Cal Poly	-6.0	137.6	25%	69–61	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Kennesaw State	-6.5	134.4	24%	63–80	✗
George Washington @ St. Bonaventure	+12.7	139.8	87%	41–88	✓
Omaha @ Denver	-0.3	144.5	43%	80–76	✓
App State @ Georgia Southern	+1.3	133.8	51%	84–78	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.