Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -31.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +20 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | PV -35.6 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -22.1 (-2.1) | 143.4 (+0.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -22.6 (-2.6) | 147.0 (-3.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -31.7 (-11.7) | 141.5 (+2.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -31.2 (-11.2) | 142.1 (+1.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | PV 72 – 62 MVSU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | PV 70 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | PV 64 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PV 74 – 65 MVSU |
| Feb 27, 2024 | MVSU 57 – 51 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 2-22 |
| Conference | 13-0 | 2-13 |
| Home | 8-0 | 1-5 |
| Away | 5-3 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 56.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 87.4 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#193) | -35.2 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#141) | -3.65 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#180) | -5.57 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#137) | 0.390 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 34.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 17.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 13.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.1% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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