Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | CCSU +400 WAG -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +6 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -7.7 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -7.1 (+13.1) | 137.7 (+22.3) | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -6.9 (+12.9) | 138.0 (+22.0) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -7.3 (+13.3) | 139.3 (+20.7) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -7.4 (+13.4) | 137.8 (+22.2) | 21% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | WAG 70 – 60 CCSU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | CCSU 84 – 67 WAG |
| Jan 30, 2026 | CCSU 62 – 55 WAG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CCSU 55 – 48 WAG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WAG 62 – 57 CCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCSU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-16 | 13-7 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 3-6 | 7-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#308) | -0.0 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#278) | 0.78 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#276) | 0.89 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#296) | 0.554 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCSU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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