← All models
Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–11 on winners
spread MAE 10.3
31 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-2.1 | 138.5 | 42% | 65–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.0 | 141.1 | 81% | 83–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.4 | 144.1 | 68% | 86–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.9 | 144.1 | 72% | 49–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.9 | 132.6 | 29% | 52–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.7 | 139.0 | 66% | 65–47 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.5 | 145.7 | 73% | 48–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.9 | 152.6 | 88% | 63–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 143.5 | 70% | 77–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.6 | 145.3 | 88% | 81–80 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.6 | 155.2 | 25% | 83–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 131.8 | 86% | 46–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 137.5 | 68% | 63–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 145.9 | 71% | 95–91 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.2 | 144.9 | 46% | 69–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 153.8 | 85% | 68–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 135.3 | 65% | 67–45 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.5 | 145.9 | 88% | 80–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.2 | 147.4 | 16% | 88–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 142.6 | 83% | 72–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 156.6 | 57% | 66–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.0 | 142.0 | 88% | 53–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.2 | 142.7 | 27% | 70–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 140.3 | 53% | 68–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 130.5 | 67% | 70–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.1 | 132.6 | 70% | 67–64 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.8 | 138.0 | 37% | 74–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.5 | 150.1 | 91% | 67–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.9 | 156.7 | 91% | 73–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 141.8 | 69% | 84–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.3 | 140.1 | 70% | 53–66 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.