Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | NWST +450 SFA -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +26 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -7.8 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (-18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -5.6 (-20.4) | 155.2 (-15.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -6.0 (-20.0) | 148.9 (-8.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -6.0 (-20.0) | 154.0 (-14.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -5.6 (-20.4) | 155.2 (-15.2) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | SFA 69 – 67 NWST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | SFA 74 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SFA 70 – 68 NWST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NWST 57 – 54 SFA |
| Nov 14, 2023 | SFA 96 – 70 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 16-5 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 12-3 |
| Home | 6-4 | 10-1 |
| Away | 4-12 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#307) | 0.2 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#318) | 0.19 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.93 (#325) | -0.12 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#246) | 0.519 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 52.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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