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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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19–11 on winners spread MAE 12.2 30 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Illinois @ Michigan State	-8.1	144.1	22%	72–81	✗
West Virginia @ TCU	-6.3	148.4	28%	74–66	✓
Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech	+3.8	141.7	69%	69–53	✗
High Point @ Campbell	+3.8	136.0	67%	48–68	✓
Bowling Green @ Eastern Michigan	-10.5	148.2	16%	82–69	✓
Notre Dame @ Louisville	+3.6	140.7	67%	57–69	✓
LSU @ Georgia	-3.4	162.7	37%	78–91	✗
Florida @ Auburn	-0.0	152.7	51%	74–57	✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Prairie View A&M	+17.5	138.8	90%	56–72	✓
Iowa State @ Baylor	+21.5	150.5	91%	72–77	✓
St. John's @ Villanova	+10.4	158.7	84%	58–81	✓
Penn State @ Nebraska	-4.6	140.0	30%	86–83	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas Southern	+21.7	149.6	91%	45–82	✓
Oklahoma @ Kansas State	-11.2	135.5	15%	57–62	✗
Kansas @ Texas	+2.9	140.7	62%	72–75	✓
Ole Miss @ Missouri	+4.9	138.8	70%	60–53	✗
Washington @ Arizona State	+7.1	149.5	77%	64–97	✓
UConn @ Georgetown	-1.2	139.5	46%	70–57	✓
Kent State @ Ball State	-5.0	143.9	30%	71–90	✗
Alabama A&M @ Southern	+3.0	134.1	64%	57–73	✓
Clemson @ Wake Forest	-4.7	132.5	32%	60–39	✓
St. Bonaventure @ Davidson	+1.8	135.4	58%	56–53	✗
North Carolina A&T @ North Carolina Central	+3.2	140.7	62%	79–63	✗
Alabama State @ Alcorn State	+5.2	135.9	69%	59–68	✓
Delaware State @ Norfolk State	+17.2	152.3	89%	55–86	✓
George Washington @ George Mason	+6.1	146.4	76%	58–63	✓
Hampton @ Longwood	+7.7	134.7	78%	74–68	✗
New Mexico @ Air Force	+0.6	129.3	52%	55–62	✓
Dayton @ Saint Joseph's	-7.7	148.2	24%	84–97	✗
NC State @ Virginia	+9.1	130.6	82%	68–61	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.