Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | NEB +250 PSU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +3 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | PSU -6.1 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -4.6 (+1.6) | 140.0 (+29.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -4.5 (+1.5) | 140.7 (+28.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -5.0 (+2.0) | 140.9 (+28.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -4.2 (+1.2) | 140.1 (+28.9) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEB 87 – 64 PSU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | PSU 89 – 72 NEB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | NEB 68 – 49 PSU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | NEB 72 – 63 PSU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | PSU 76 – 65 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-20 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 3-16 | 7-12 |
| Home | 6-9 | 7-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#127) | 11.2 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#185) | 1.50 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#174) | 2.75 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#220) | 0.528 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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