Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -29.7 (-24.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -21.5 (-16.5) | 150.5 (-1.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -22.1 (-17.1) | 150.1 (-1.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -24.4 (-19.4) | 150.7 (-1.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -25.4 (-20.4) | 151.1 (-2.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ISU 72 – 69 BAY |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ISU 70 – 60 BAY |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ISU 74 – 55 BAY |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ISU 76 – 62 BAY |
| Feb 4, 2024 | BAY 70 – 68 ISU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-2 | 2-22 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 0-18 |
| Home | 11-0 | 2-10 |
| Away | 7-1 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W6 | L18 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.9 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 24.6 (#2) | -2.7 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.38 (#2) | -1.26 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.22 (#1) | -1.46 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#3) | 0.456 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 43.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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