Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | PV -1600 UAPB +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +16 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | PV -19.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -17.5 (-1.5) | 138.8 (-10.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -16.1 (-0.1) | 137.8 (-9.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -17.2 (-1.2) | 138.2 (-10.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -18.7 (-2.7) | 138.8 (-10.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UAPB 84 – 82 PV |
| Jan 13, 2026 | PV 73 – 61 UAPB |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UAPB 75 – 64 PV |
| Jan 13, 2025 | PV 75 – 64 UAPB |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UAPB 72 – 59 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 4-21 |
| Conference | 13-0 | 3-12 |
| Home | 8-0 | 2-3 |
| Away | 5-3 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#188) | -19.1 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#138) | -2.68 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#171) | -4.02 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#135) | 0.387 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 41.6% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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