Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN +200 CONN -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +13 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -2.9 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -1.2 (-11.8) | 139.5 (-12.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -2.2 (-10.8) | 137.0 (-10.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -1.6 (-11.4) | 138.9 (-11.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -1.3 (-11.7) | 138.9 (-11.9) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | CONN 67 – 51 GTWN |
| Feb 15, 2026 | CONN 79 – 75 GTWN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CONN 64 – 62 GTWN |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CONN 93 – 79 GTWN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CONN 68 – 60 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 15-8 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 11-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 7-3 |
| Away | 2-6 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#97) | 10.9 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#91) | 1.81 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#92) | 2.44 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#124) | 0.572 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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