Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -163 ND +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +12 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -2.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -3.6 (+8.4) | 140.7 (-14.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -2.8 (+9.2) | 138.2 (-12.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -3.9 (+8.1) | 140.9 (-14.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -3.6 (+8.4) | 140.9 (-14.9) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LOU 76 – 65 ND |
| Feb 17, 2025 | LOU 75 – 60 ND |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ND 72 – 50 LOU |
| Jan 28, 2023 | ND 76 – 62 LOU |
| Feb 10, 2022 | ND 63 – 57 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-7 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-2 | 6-5 |
| Away | 4-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#66) | 8.7 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#41) | 1.13 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#43) | 1.73 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#33) | 0.529 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 12.9% |
Game Analysis
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