I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
Longwood Lancers
68 – 74
FINAL Conference
Hampton Pirates
Big South Conference · Willett Hall · February 24, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread LONG -6.5 Away covered
O/U 139.5 Over
Money LONG -250 / HAMP +250
Model Predictions
Spread Total LONG win
Actual HAMP +6 142 Lost
Massey LONG -8.0 (-14.0) — —
Massey Totals — 135.6 (+6.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 71% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 82% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LONG -5.6 (-11.6) 135.2 (+6.8) 74% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML LONG -7.7 (-13.7) 134.7 (+7.3) 78% ✗
Baseline ML LONG -7.0 (-13.0) 135.6 (+6.4) 76% ✗
Baseline Plus ML LONG -6.8 (-12.8) 136.6 (+5.4) 76% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 20, 2022 LONG 76 – 72 HAMP
Jan 24, 2022 LONG 73 – 48 HAMP
Feb 15, 2021 LONG 83 – 73 HAMP

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LONG HAMP
Overall 12-17 11-14
Conference 10-10 9-9
Home 8-5 5-7
Away 4-11 6-7
Neutral 0-1 0-0
Last 5 5-0 1-4
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 66.3 68.8
Avg Pts Against 67.8 73.2
Massey -4.3 (#238) -9.9 (#304)
Bradley-Terry -1.43 (#287) -1.92 (#319)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.62 (#275) -2.65 (#321)
RPI 0.458 (#240) 0.405 (#318)
Shooting & Four Factors LONG HAMP
FG% 43.0% 42.7%
3PT% 34.3% 33.2%
REB / G 33.0 34.5
OREB / G 9.2 8.2
AST / TO 0.82 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.5% 49.1%
TOV% 19.5% 17.7%
ORB% 26.9% 22.6%
FT Rate 22.7% 20.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.2% 49.3%
Opp TOV% 20.7% 17.6%
DRB% 73.8% 68.0%
Opp FT Rate 25.1% 24.6%

Game Analysis

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