Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -700 SJU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +23 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -9.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -10.4 (+12.6) | 158.7 (-19.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -9.1 (+13.9) | 153.5 (-14.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -10.7 (+12.3) | 157.4 (-18.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -10.0 (+13.0) | 157.3 (-18.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SJU 89 – 57 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SJU 86 – 79 VILL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | VILL 73 – 71 SJU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SJU 80 – 68 VILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SJU 70 – 50 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 16-11 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 10-9 |
| Home | 9-0 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#15) | 7.5 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#10) | 1.48 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.48 (#17) | 2.08 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#15) | 0.535 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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