Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -300 GW +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +5 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -6.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -6.1 (-1.1) | 146.4 (-25.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -5.0 (-0.0) | 144.0 (-23.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -5.9 (-0.9) | 146.3 (-25.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -6.7 (-1.7) | 147.2 (-26.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | GW 72 – 53 GMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | GMU 69 – 64 GW |
| Mar 14, 2025 | GMU 80 – 65 GW |
| Feb 6, 2025 | GMU 53 – 50 GW |
| Jan 18, 2025 | GMU 80 – 77 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 5-12 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 3-5 |
| Home | 7-3 | 3-6 |
| Away | 3-4 | 1-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#135) | -2.1 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#124) | -1.12 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#137) | -0.72 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#131) | 0.433 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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