Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MSU +275 ILL -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +9 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -11.7 (+20.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -8.1 (+17.1) | 144.1 (+8.9) | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -8.6 (+17.6) | 144.8 (+8.2) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -8.8 (+17.8) | 145.3 (+7.7) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -8.7 (+17.7) | 144.1 (+8.9) | 25% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MSU 85 – 82 ILL |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MSU 79 – 65 ILL |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MSU 80 – 78 ILL |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MSU 88 – 80 ILL |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ILL 71 – 68 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 16-4 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#83) | 20.7 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#59) | 3.07 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#50) | 4.49 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#150) | 0.606 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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