Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -700 NCSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +7 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -9.7 (-16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -9.1 (-16.1) | 130.6 (-1.6) | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -8.9 (-15.9) | 121.0 (+8.0) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -10.1 (-17.1) | 125.6 (+3.4) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -9.5 (-16.5) | 131.1 (-2.1) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UVA 81 – 74 NCSU |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UVA 90 – 61 NCSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UVA 76 – 61 NCSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UVA 70 – 67 NCSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | NCSU 73 – 65 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 9-8 |
| Home | 10-1 | 7-4 |
| Away | 6-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.2 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 15.3 (#13) | 7.9 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#19) | 0.76 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.77 (#10) | 1.01 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#18) | 0.513 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.