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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
21–2 on winners
spread MAE 10.0
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas State
@
Arkansas State
|
-1.3 | 136.7 | 45% | 57–52 | ✓ |
William & Mary
@
Elon
|
+2.0 | 134.9 | 62% | 54–73 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
Drake
|
+15.7 | 140.0 | 89% | 63–74 | ✓ |
Valparaiso
@
Southern Illinois
|
+1.6 | 130.5 | 58% | 64–67 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
Duke
|
+3.3 | 149.0 | 67% | 71–85 | ✓ |
The Citadel
@
Mercer
|
+6.7 | 157.5 | 77% | 52–88 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
Northwestern State
|
+3.4 | 155.4 | 66% | 80–86 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
-0.1 | 139.1 | 47% | 78–75 | ✓ |
Central Arkansas
@
LSU New Orleans
|
+4.4 | 151.2 | 68% | 63–88 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
Lamar
|
-9.4 | 145.0 | 17% | 77–71 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Southern
|
+9.7 | 133.2 | 84% | 66–75 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Alcorn State
|
-2.5 | 137.2 | 38% | 52–65 | ✗ |
Texas Tech
@
Oklahoma State
|
+1.3 | 138.8 | 57% | 69–74 | ✓ |
Oregon
@
USC
|
+6.3 | 138.2 | 75% | 58–72 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Air Force
|
+0.6 | 128.9 | 52% | 73–65 | ✗ |
North Alabama
@
Liberty
|
+15.6 | 133.7 | 89% | 54–74 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Ohio
|
+2.5 | 153.6 | 65% | 73–90 | ✓ |
Pacific
@
San Diego
|
-1.7 | 140.3 | 44% | 77–67 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Central Michigan
|
-2.3 | 147.7 | 42% | 96–54 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Northern Illinois
|
-14.7 | 144.0 | 13% | 102–74 | ✓ |
App State
@
Georgia State
|
+5.5 | 141.1 | 71% | 71–85 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
Richmond
|
+6.4 | 151.1 | 75% | 65–79 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
VCU
|
+4.0 | 136.8 | 68% | 65–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.