Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | NWST -175 HCU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +6 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | NWST -3.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -3.4 (+2.6) | 155.4 (+10.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -2.9 (+3.1) | 155.1 (+10.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -4.4 (+1.6) | 155.7 (+10.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -3.2 (+2.8) | 155.6 (+10.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NWST 71 – 53 HCU |
| Jan 20, 2026 | HCU 82 – 80 NWST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NWST 61 – 56 HCU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NWST 64 – 57 HCU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NWST 86 – 73 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 6-19 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 4-11 |
| Home | 6-4 | 4-6 |
| Away | 4-12 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 81.1 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#310) | -11.0 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#320) | -2.46 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.05 (#328) | -3.04 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#260) | 0.413 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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