Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -110 VAL +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +3 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -0.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -1.6 (+1.4) | 130.5 (+0.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -0.6 (+2.4) | 129.6 (+1.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -0.2 (+2.8) | 131.4 (-0.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -0.6 (+2.4) | 131.4 (-0.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | VAL 69 – 63 SIU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SIU 75 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | VAL 83 – 79 SIU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SIU 79 – 75 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SIU 75 – 69 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-14 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#234) | -2.7 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#219) | -0.76 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#246) | -1.05 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#247) | 0.446 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.6 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 17.3% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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