Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | NIU +650 BUF -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +28 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -18.1 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+32.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -14.7 (-13.3) | 144.0 (+32.0) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -13.9 (-14.1) | 146.1 (+29.9) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -15.0 (-13.0) | 147.0 (+29.0) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -14.9 (-13.1) | 145.6 (+30.4) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NIU 72 – 70 BUF |
| Dec 31, 2025 | BUF 81 – 67 NIU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | BUF 73 – 67 NIU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | NIU 78 – 68 BUF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | NIU 72 – 68 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-16 | 16-9 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 12-5 |
| Home | 2-7 | 8-3 |
| Away | 1-9 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.3 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#334) | 7.3 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.56 (#332) | 0.00 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.66 (#335) | 0.45 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#329) | 0.504 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 43.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 14.7% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.