Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | ARST +160 TXST -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +5 | 109 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -2.2 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -1.3 (-3.7) | 136.7 (-27.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -0.2 (-5.2) | 130.0 (-21.0) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -1.9 (-3.1) | 133.3 (-24.3) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -2.5 (-2.5) | 136.0 (-27.0) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | ARST 83 – 82 TXST |
| Dec 18, 2025 | ARST 89 – 70 TXST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ARST 85 – 74 TXST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ARST 80 – 65 TXST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ARST 79 – 72 TXST |
Game Analysis
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