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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–2 on winners
spread MAE 6.5
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wisconsin
@
Northwestern
|
-2.3 | 134.1 | 38% | 68–51 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Xavier
|
+10.0 | 137.8 | 84% | 51–63 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
Liberty
|
+14.6 | 136.3 | 88% | 54–74 | ✓ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
-3.1 | 155.6 | 36% | 87–65 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
Western Carolina
|
-5.8 | 142.4 | 25% | 77–56 | ✓ |
Little Rock
@
UL Monroe
|
-1.0 | 134.2 | 44% | 64–68 | ✗ |
Grambling
@
Jackson State
|
+4.5 | 132.8 | 71% | 59–63 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
South Carolina Upstate
|
-5.0 | 138.6 | 31% | 69–58 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
Louisiana
|
+5.6 | 148.4 | 69% | 74–76 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
Presbyterian
|
+4.8 | 131.5 | 69% | 78–77 | ✗ |
Morehead State
@
SIU Edwardsville
|
-8.4 | 134.5 | 18% | 56–48 | ✓ |
Pepperdine
@
Saint Mary's
|
+5.1 | 136.4 | 71% | 61–66 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.