Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | WCU +350 UNCG -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +21 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -7.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -5.8 (-15.2) | 142.4 (-9.4) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -7.4 (-13.6) | 144.4 (-11.4) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -7.0 (-14.0) | 147.0 (-14.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -6.8 (-14.2) | 144.0 (-11.0) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WCU 91 – 77 UNCG |
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCG 81 – 78 WCU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCG 74 – 70 WCU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCG 83 – 55 WCU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | UNCG 71 – 65 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-16 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 4-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-5 | 7-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#252) | 4.8 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#230) | 1.04 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#229) | 1.20 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#256) | 0.564 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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