Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -240 PEPP +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +5 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -6.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -5.1 (-0.1) | 136.4 (-9.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -4.0 (+1.0) | 134.6 (-7.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -5.4 (-0.4) | 140.0 (-13.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -5.2 (-0.2) | 137.0 (-10.0) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SMC 88 – 60 PEPP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | SMC 72 – 45 PEPP |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SMC 74 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SMC 74 – 50 PEPP |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SMC 71 – 41 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 4-6 | 7-6 |
| Home | 9-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 2-3 | 3-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#84) | 3.0 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#68) | 0.88 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#77) | 0.87 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#66) | 0.541 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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