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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–22 on winners spread MAE 9.3 53 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Monmouth @ Iona	+1.3	154.9	56%	65–88	✓
Saint Francis @ Wagner	+6.5	139.8	78%	52–67	✓
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University	+8.5	143.7	82%	74–87	✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Northridge	-3.3	144.7	36%	80–88	✗
Cal Poly @ Long Beach State	+5.1	141.7	69%	69–74	✓
San Diego State @ Fresno State	-13.2	131.4	14%	75–57	✓
DePaul @ St. John's	+10.7	147.2	85%	88–83	✗
San Diego @ Gonzaga	+22.3	156.9	91%	69–106	✓
Virginia @ Duke	-1.3	136.0	41%	65–66	✗
Kennesaw State @ Lipscomb	+9.9	137.3	85%	63–77	✓
Marist @ Saint Peter's	+6.4	123.8	74%	51–50	✗
Colorado @ Oregon State	-5.4	135.6	29%	61–57	✓
Denver @ Kansas City	+11.1	130.1	86%	69–80	✓
North Dakota @ Omaha	+0.5	143.1	52%	81–69	✗
Green Bay @ UIC	+1.4	141.8	57%	69–59	✗
UC Riverside @ UC San Diego	-7.5	138.3	24%	82–83	✗
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton	-4.8	146.0	29%	64–67	✗
South Dakota State @ North Dakota State	+0.3	140.5	52%	82–84	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Murray State	+13.1	139.1	87%	62–89	✓
Utah @ Oregon	+7.6	137.5	79%	64–67	✓
Utah Valley @ New Mexico State	+1.3	145.0	57%	60–67	✓
California Baptist @ Grand Canyon	+12.0	143.8	87%	65–62	✗
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech	-4.2	143.1	32%	48–64	✗
California @ Washington	+0.9	137.5	56%	51–62	✓
Arizona State @ UCLA	+9.7	147.2	82%	79–80	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Santa Barbara	+9.6	131.5	82%	44–63	✓
Rhode Island @ George Washington	-6.1	144.8	27%	70–78	✗
Siena @ Niagara	-1.3	129.5	42%	68–66	✓
Michigan @ Ohio State	+2.8	147.1	61%	92–87	✗
Cincinnati @ Houston	+14.3	137.8	87%	52–90	✓
Boston University @ Colgate	+18.8	151.5	90%	63–78	✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac	+4.2	143.6	67%	68–93	✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina	+7.9	140.3	80%	55–65	✓
South Florida @ Temple	+2.3	134.8	62%	83–76	✗
Stony Brook @ UAlbany	+1.7	133.4	60%	59–67	✓
Sacred Heart @ St. Francis Brooklyn	+2.0	155.7	62%	88–82	✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Fairleigh Dickinson	-0.3	136.3	50%	74–61	✓
Binghamton @ NJIT	+5.2	139.7	70%	72–58	✗
Army @ Holy Cross	-4.8	145.1	29%	51–67	✗
Maryland @ Rutgers	+4.8	129.8	69%	68–59	✗
Davidson @ St. Bonaventure	+5.8	137.6	70%	58–69	✓
Bryant @ Merrimack	-0.9	141.8	48%	76–60	✓
Evansville @ Drake	+15.0	137.0	89%	71–85	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Florida A&M	+6.9	135.2	75%	70–63	✗
UNLV @ San José State	-10.4	142.3	16%	67–64	✓
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University	+8.9	145.0	82%	79–81	✓
Saint Francis @ Wagner	+7.1	134.4	78%	68–70	✓
Penn State @ Iowa	+10.6	155.4	86%	68–74	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Texas Southern	+0.5	136.9	49%	77–75	✗
Valparaiso @ Southern Illinois	+1.5	130.5	59%	66–65	✗
Little Rock @ UL Monroe	-2.7	133.6	36%	66–78	✗
Lehigh @ Loyola Maryland	+12.6	145.7	87%	76–72	✗
Navy @ American University	-0.1	143.3	45%	69–60	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.