Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UTU +124 TAR -146 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +16 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -6.7 (+22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (-31.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -4.2 (+20.2) | 143.1 (-31.1) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -3.1 (+19.1) | 138.9 (-26.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -4.4 (+20.4) | 143.5 (-31.5) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -4.0 (+20.0) | 144.4 (-32.4) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UTU 80 – 72 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UTU 65 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UTU 75 – 71 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TAR 61 – 54 UTU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTU 58 – 54 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-13 | 10-10 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 5-7 |
| Home | 5-7 | 6-3 |
| Away | 3-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -13.7 (#335) | -4.6 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#315) | -1.77 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.88 (#324) | -2.01 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#302) | 0.461 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 17.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 38.5% |
Game Analysis
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