Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | KC -450 DEN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | KC -13.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (+20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -11.1 (-0.1) | 130.1 (+18.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -10.6 (+0.4) | 125.3 (+23.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -10.7 (+0.3) | 127.5 (+21.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KC -10.9 (+0.1) | 129.7 (+19.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | DEN 69 – 61 KC |
| Dec 31, 2025 | DEN 87 – 74 KC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | KC 64 – 56 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2025 | DEN 69 – 68 KC |
| Mar 10, 2024 | DEN 61 – 60 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-13 | 2-19 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 1-13 |
| Home | 8-3 | 2-10 |
| Away | 2-8 | 0-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 79.8 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#226) | -14.9 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#294) | -3.89 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#292) | -4.77 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#294) | 0.326 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 28.7 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.6% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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