Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | NDSU -110 SDST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +2 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -1.1 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -0.3 (+1.7) | 140.5 (+25.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -0.2 (+2.2) | 138.9 (+27.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -0.3 (+1.7) | 142.0 (+24.0) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -0.2 (+2.2) | 140.6 (+25.4) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NDSU 74 – 66 SDST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | NDSU 76 – 65 SDST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | NDSU 77 – 68 SDST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SDST 72 – 62 NDSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SDST 78 – 61 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 16-7 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 9-3 |
| Home | 6-2 | 8-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-2 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#172) | 3.1 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#236) | 0.42 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#231) | 0.11 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#196) | 0.542 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 79.8% | 78.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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