Betting Lines
| Spread | URI -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | GW +400 URI -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | URI -7.3 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -6.1 (+14.1) | 144.8 (+3.2) | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | URI -5.7 (+13.7) | 145.1 (+2.9) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -6.2 (+14.2) | 145.3 (+2.7) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | URI -6.5 (+14.5) | 145.9 (+2.1) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | GW 75 – 70 URI |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GW 75 – 67 URI |
| Feb 7, 2024 | URI 88 – 65 GW |
| Feb 23, 2023 | GW 89 – 80 URI |
| Feb 19, 2022 | GW 72 – 61 URI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | URI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-12 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 3-5 | 7-10 |
| Home | 3-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 1-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#218) | 6.6 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#284) | 0.68 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#251) | 1.35 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#291) | 0.508 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | URI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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