Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 119.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -300 MRST +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +1 | 101 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -7.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -6.4 (-7.4) | 123.8 (-22.8) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -5.4 (-6.4) | 122.1 (-21.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -6.2 (-7.2) | 125.2 (-24.2) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -6.8 (-7.8) | 123.3 (-22.3) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SPU 63 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SPU 69 – 59 MRST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | SPU 57 – 52 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | MRST 56 – 51 SPU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SPU 69 – 60 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 12-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.5 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#163) | -5.1 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#134) | -0.34 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#138) | -0.77 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#86) | 0.498 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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