Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE +140 UVA -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -2.9 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -1.3 (+2.3) | 136.0 (-5.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -1.2 (+2.2) | 130.8 (+0.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -0.6 (+1.6) | 133.2 (-2.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -1.4 (+2.4) | 134.2 (-3.2) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | DUKE 74 – 70 UVA |
| Feb 28, 2026 | DUKE 77 – 51 UVA |
| Feb 18, 2025 | DUKE 80 – 62 UVA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | DUKE 73 – 48 UVA |
| Mar 12, 2023 | DUKE 59 – 49 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-4 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-1 |
| Away | 3-6 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 58.2 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#52) | 15.5 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#84) | 2.88 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#64) | 3.92 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#119) | 0.622 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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