Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA -600 PSU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -11.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -10.6 (-4.6) | 155.4 (-13.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -9.1 (-3.1) | 152.6 (-10.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -11.9 (-5.9) | 155.8 (-13.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -11.1 (-5.1) | 153.6 (-11.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PSU 71 – 69 IOWA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | IOWA 76 – 75 PSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | IOWA 90 – 81 PSU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | PSU 89 – 79 IOWA |
| Jan 1, 2023 | PSU 83 – 79 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.7 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 20.4 (#4) | 10.9 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#11) | 1.54 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.18 (#6) | 2.82 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#41) | 0.529 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 2.07 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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