Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | FDU -110 MSM +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +13 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -0.7 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -1.2 (-11.8) | 134.2 (+0.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -0.3 (-12.7) | 136.3 (-1.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -0.0 (-13.0) | 137.7 (-2.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -0.6 (-12.4) | 135.3 (-0.3) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2022 | MSM 67 – 56 FDU |
| Feb 20, 2021 | FDU 76 – 71 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-15 | 12-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-7 |
| Home | 4-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 62.2 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#256) | -2.2 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#211) | -0.17 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#219) | -0.06 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#232) | 0.501 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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