Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +11 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -5.1 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -5.7 (-5.3) | 136.0 (-13.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -6.3 (-4.7) | 136.6 (-13.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -5.9 (-5.1) | 137.4 (-14.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -5.8 (-5.2) | 136.8 (-13.8) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2021 | MSM 74 – 61 FDU |
| Feb 20, 2021 | FDU 76 – 71 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-22 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 3-8 | 8-7 |
| Away | 2-16 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 65.4 |
| Massey | -14.5 (#347) | -6.1 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.27 (#351) | -1.30 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.63 (#349) | -1.67 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#340) | 0.455 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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