Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | FDU -138 MSM +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -1.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -0.9 (+5.9) | 133.8 (+13.2) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -0.5 (+5.5) | 136.3 (+10.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -0.3 (+5.3) | 136.7 (+10.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -1.0 (+6.0) | 135.4 (+11.6) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2022 | MSM 67 – 56 FDU |
| Feb 21, 2021 | MSM 74 – 61 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-15 | 12-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-7 |
| Home | 4-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 62.2 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#259) | -1.9 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#225) | 0.03 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#224) | 0.14 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#244) | 0.519 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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