Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -110 VAL +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +1 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -1.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -1.5 (-2.5) | 130.5 (+0.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -0.9 (-1.9) | 129.2 (+1.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -0.4 (-1.4) | 131.3 (-0.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -1.0 (-2.0) | 131.0 (-0.0) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | VAL 69 – 63 SIU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SIU 75 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | VAL 83 – 79 SIU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SIU 79 – 75 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SIU 75 – 69 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-14 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#233) | -2.8 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#201) | -0.95 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#240) | -1.11 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#223) | 0.434 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.6 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 17.2% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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