Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | FRES +700 SDSU -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +18 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -16.2 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -13.2 (-4.8) | 131.4 (+0.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -12.9 (-5.1) | 127.8 (+4.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -14.8 (-3.2) | 131.2 (+0.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -13.7 (-4.3) | 131.8 (+0.2) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 52 FRES |
| Feb 19, 2025 | SDSU 83 – 60 FRES |
| Dec 5, 2024 | SDSU 84 – 62 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SDSU 73 – 41 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 47 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-12 | 23-5 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-3 |
| Home | 7-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 61.9 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#250) | 13.5 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#170) | 2.17 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#172) | 2.60 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#164) | 0.610 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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