Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -900 CIN +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +38 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -16.2 (+21.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -14.3 (+23.7) | 137.8 (+4.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -14.4 (+23.6) | 134.1 (+7.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -14.9 (+23.1) | 135.6 (+6.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -13.9 (+24.1) | 137.0 (+5.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOU 76 – 54 CIN |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HOU 67 – 60 CIN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | HOU 73 – 64 CIN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 CIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HOU 67 – 62 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 12-11 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 8-6 |
| Home | 15-0 | 5-5 |
| Away | 5-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 17.2 (#8) | 3.4 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#10) | 1.08 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.84 (#8) | 1.26 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#11) | 0.542 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 40.2% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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