Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | NMSU -350 UVU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +7 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -1.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -2.1 (+4.9) | 145.4 (-18.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -2.3 (+4.7) | 142.2 (-15.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -1.3 (+5.7) | 145.0 (-18.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -1.5 (+5.5) | 146.9 (-19.9) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2023 | UVU 77 – 72 NMSU |
| Mar 6, 2022 | NMSU 62 – 46 UVU |
| Feb 12, 2022 | UVU 72 – 68 NMSU |
| Mar 13, 2021 | NMSU 78 – 62 UVU |
| Feb 20, 2021 | UVU 69 – 66 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-8 | 11-11 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 9-4 |
| Home | 3-2 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#231) | -3.3 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#323) | -1.24 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#305) | -1.61 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#325) | 0.464 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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