Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UVU +230 NMSU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +16 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -2.6 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -2.5 (-13.5) | 135.2 (+4.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -2.7 (-13.3) | 133.6 (+6.4) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -2.1 (-13.9) | 134.8 (+5.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -2.5 (-13.5) | 134.4 (+5.6) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2023 | UVU 77 – 72 NMSU |
| Mar 6, 2022 | NMSU 62 – 46 UVU |
| Feb 12, 2022 | UVU 72 – 68 NMSU |
| Feb 21, 2021 | NMSU 67 – 60 UVU |
| Feb 20, 2021 | UVU 69 – 66 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-11 | 12-8 |
| Conference | 9-4 | 7-6 |
| Home | 8-4 | 3-2 |
| Away | 3-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 65.4 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#202) | 0.5 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#242) | -0.96 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#240) | -0.93 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#158) | 0.478 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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