Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | NMSU -450 UVU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +3 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -3.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -3.0 (-6.0) | 145.8 (-10.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -3.6 (-6.6) | 141.4 (-6.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -2.4 (-5.4) | 145.5 (-10.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -2.0 (-5.0) | 146.9 (-11.9) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2023 | UVU 77 – 72 NMSU |
| Mar 6, 2022 | NMSU 62 – 46 UVU |
| Feb 12, 2022 | UVU 72 – 68 NMSU |
| Mar 13, 2021 | NMSU 78 – 62 UVU |
| Feb 21, 2021 | NMSU 67 – 60 UVU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-8 | 11-11 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 9-4 |
| Home | 3-2 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#218) | -3.9 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#306) | -1.47 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#286) | -1.93 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#299) | 0.448 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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