Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +16 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -4.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (-26.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -5.9 (+10.1) | 136.3 (-28.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -5.1 (+10.9) | 135.9 (-27.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -6.5 (+9.5) | 135.4 (-27.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -6.1 (+9.9) | 136.2 (-28.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2023 | UVU 77 – 72 NMSU |
| Feb 12, 2022 | UVU 72 – 68 NMSU |
| Mar 13, 2021 | NMSU 78 – 62 UVU |
| Feb 21, 2021 | NMSU 67 – 60 UVU |
| Feb 20, 2021 | UVU 69 – 66 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 10-3 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 65.7 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#98) | 3.9 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#58) | 0.83 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#62) | 1.05 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#40) | 0.550 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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