Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | SBU -175 DAV +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +11 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -4.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -5.8 (+5.2) | 137.6 (-10.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -4.5 (+6.5) | 132.8 (-5.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -5.5 (+5.5) | 134.5 (-7.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -6.1 (+4.9) | 136.1 (-9.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | DAV 68 – 63 SBU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SBU 64 – 61 DAV |
| Feb 17, 2024 | SBU 81 – 80 DAV |
| Mar 8, 2023 | DAV 65 – 54 SBU |
| Feb 23, 2023 | DAV 74 – 61 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 13-9 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 7-4 |
| Home | 8-1 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.1 | 64.8 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#51) | 8.1 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#48) | 0.99 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#48) | 1.62 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#26) | 0.511 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 81.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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