Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | WAG -225 SFPA +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -7.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -7.1 (-5.1) | 134.4 (+3.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -6.6 (-4.6) | 133.2 (+4.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -6.6 (-4.6) | 135.0 (+3.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -6.8 (-4.8) | 134.5 (+3.5) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | WAG 65 – 56 SFPA |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SFPA 71 – 69 WAG |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SFPA 58 – 55 WAG |
| Jan 26, 2025 | WAG 68 – 66 SFPA |
| Jan 20, 2025 | WAG 70 – 68 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-7 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Away | 6-4 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#170) | -5.0 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#121) | -0.81 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#125) | -0.78 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#78) | 0.463 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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